Desertscope

Musings from Southern New Mexico

Page 24 of 60

Not So Much on Expertise as Science

Ok, so I am easily distracted. I seem to have gone off the claimed topic a bit in my previous post. This time, I will actually attempt to stay on point.

Expertise is an important indicator of the soundness of a science. There are a number of metrics by which we can measure degrees of expertise. The difficulty is in ascertaining the consistency of the parts. That is to say that if a discipline is real, its practitioners should be able to readily identify experts in the field while just as easily dismissing charlatans out of hand. Another feature which we generally overlook is that the tendency is for real science to arrive at solutions independently from different directions and in agreement. This is the case, that is, for mature sciences. In newer topics, we expect merely that disparate groups or disciplines are converging towards a solution or model.

We generally find that new publications do not disprove old theorems. Rather, they propose refinements. Adjustments of models over decades of rigorous science is expected. Overturning of well-established scientific principles, on the other hand, would require an enormous amount of incontrovertible evidence inconsistent with theory.

The Existence of Expertise

On easy way to see if your pursuit is real or bullshit is the existence of experts. People in science often see it as a battlefield wherein truth is approached through bitter struggle between competing factions supporting incompatible models of reality.

On this, the fools and leaders of fools capitalize.

Unlike silly detective shows, the world does not really lend itself well to discovery. Large effects have been known since ancient times. Think of these as a first order approximation. Less obvious effects took more time, but are still old by most standards. These are second order approximations. Then, through numerous iterations, we achieve finer and finer approximations of reality. This, now, is where we find ourselves. Scientific argument has reached the point where, in most fields, academic disagreement is on scales which are not accessible to those outside narrow focal areas. My late thermodynamics professor (if you’ve used dive tables, you have used his work) said with some pride that an important constant had been changed within his lifetime. He had been born in the 1920s, and I think that it may have been Avogadro’s number that had changed in the third decimal place.

I wasn’t taking notes, sorry.

Simulations I create of movement of objects through the atmosphere rely on work done from the 17th Century to the early 20th Century. From Galilean relativity and Newtonian mechanics and gravitation, through a rotating frame of reference (Coriolis), to simple models of atmospheric resistance originating with Bournouilli and standardized by Prandtl. More complex models exist to account for geographic variation in gravity, and to more closely approximate acceleration due to drag, and to incorporate gravitational effects of the sun and moon, and include relativistic effects. For real-world simulations, however, difference in estimate impacts between the two are small.

That is where science is. As far as modeling the world, it is being done deep in the decimal places. Discoveries and inventions still appear and do improve our understanding of the world, but not very much of it noticeably alters our lives. A 10% improvement in energy storage per unit of mass (say in batteries) would be dramatic from an engineering standpoint. It wouldn’t really make much difference to an individual, though. Your iPad would be slightly lighter or last slightly longer.

We have reached a point where any person whose model would overturn major established theory can be dismissed as a crackpot out of hand. Absent overwhelming supporting evidence, we can safely dismiss any such theory out of hand.

I Understand the Obsession

Long, long ago, a little known spot on the body journalistic happened upon a new World War in the making. Powered by such luminaries as Peter Arnett and Christiane Amanpour, the world populace was informed of the goings-on of a then little-known patch of the world known as Iraq. Fast-forward what seems like a hundred years and you will find a smoldering shell of tear-inducing toxins presented by the comically dim (and pornstar-named) Wolf Blitzer. This enterprise has reached the point where any group of reasonably intelligent, college educated people could outperform the entire cast (i.e. non-technical personnel) of CNN in presenting a greatly superior product. You could limit their instructions to 1) require strong evidence for reporting, and 2) discard ridiculous bullshit.

… but I digress…

We all want to know what happened to, say, Malaysian Airlines Flight 370. But this craving for news won’t be sated with the fluff and bullshit proffered by CNN’s clown show. While they do not intend to mislead (see propaganda organization Fox News), they must be aware that any “reporting” done on this subject is as substantial as cotton candy (and equally nourishing). If they were interested in real reporting, they would add minor updates to a piece covering all known details. They would not elevate each crackpot theory that comes along to headline “BREAKING NEWS”.

Some Headache

In modern America, health care appointments must be made ridiculously far in advance. I recently scheduled an eye exam, but couldn’t get an appointment for six weeks. Today was the day. I took the day off work. After dropping off the kid at school, I sat down to catch a TV show or two. Only minutes after sitting down, I developed a rather strong headache. I rarely get headaches. When I do, they are usually of the mild variety that are just annoying. Within a couple of minutes of this headache’s appearance, however, it suddenly became intense. It was worse than any headache I have ever had (caveat: excluding actual head injuries). It took all the effort I could muster just to drag my carcass to the medicine cabinet for some Motrin. I forced down a couple and tried to lay on the couch. Nothing helped. I lay on the floor, on the bed, and tried every resting position I could imagine without effect for the next half hour or so. It then receded to a mere bad headache. Though I had become nauseous at the apex of the experience, I forced myself to eat some lunch. The dull ache has continued for about 11 hours now. The eye examination, of course, included such things as pressure tests and pupil dilation which made the experience barely tolerable. I only hope that a good night’s sleep can do something for it.

Slap Fights

It bugs me a little when should-be allies attack each other over twitter. They all end up looking like morons. For a while, I thought it was just the right wing loons accusing each other of not being racist, misogynistic, sociopathic, or otherwise misanthropic enough.

I soon found that the childish infighting is quite popular among segments of the their polar opposites.

People like Wendy Davis take pragmatic positions that will not doom them among their electorate. Among the self-appointed “purity” police on the left, this is heresy. These people will shoot their own causes in the foot to maintain a high level of self righteousness. I would point these people to a more talented wordsmith than myself. As a somewhat popular blogger once said, “Your Mumia sweatshirt won’t get you into heaven anymore.”

Whenever your pet flower child runs against a Bull Connor, keep one thing in mind. All things being equal your candidate might win, but all things are not equal so your candidate will lose.

« Older posts Newer posts »

© 2026 Desertscope

Theme by Anders NorenUp ↑