I’m working on an analysis. It seems that, despite Trump’s criminally late response, there is some good news. While the inaction of the incompetent imbecile and his toadies (along with some good old-fashioned corruption) will kill many Americans, the infection rate seems to be breaking away from a strict exponential growth. While the US will… Continue reading I’m Actually Working, I Swear
There was a small amount of good news recently. Today’s tally fell short of my initial prediction. Yesterday’s tally of 68,211 was markedly less than the rough prediction I had made two weeks prior to that date (100,000). That is good. But all it really means is that the minimal measures taken thus far have… Continue reading Tomorrow, I’ll Revisit the Trend
One week ago today, I made a very rough estimate, based on some assumptions stated in that post. How accurate was that guess? At that time, 1,000 cases had been identified within the US. My quick calculation was to assume an order of magnitude gain per week for a few weeks (before saturation was approached).… Continue reading How Accurate?
The following charts are based on the data found at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ and represent a trend if there were no intervention. That is an important caveat, as the pictures might be otherwise alarming. First: Fit the raw data to a curve. This is not necessarily the best fit. I fit a curve to each two points… Continue reading How Would It Spread with No Intervention?
Entertainment delivered in the manner of news has poisoned the minds of Fox News viewers to the point where utterly implausible claims are made without eliciting a hint of skepticism. And when one’s mind is full of bullshit wholeheartedly accepted as fact, a person becomes a danger to himself and others. What is worse is… Continue reading Propaganda