{"id":1157,"date":"2015-08-28T23:24:02","date_gmt":"2015-08-29T05:24:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.desertscope.com\/wp\/?p=1157"},"modified":"2015-08-28T23:24:02","modified_gmt":"2015-08-29T05:24:02","slug":"a-quirk-of-statistics-and-probability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.desertscope.com\/wp\/?p=1157","title":{"rendered":"A Quirk of Statistics and Probability"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There is something very wrong with the way people have evolved. We are extremely adept at discerning patterns. These patterns, unfortunately, are of a size appropriate for hunter\/gatherer bands. For great societies, these perceived patterns simply delude. In a lifespan of fifteen or twenty thousand days, a one in 10 thousand event is a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence. &#8220;If <i>I<\/i> conduct a single activity with a fairly low probability of a disaster occurring, it is OK.&#8221; What these people fail to realize is that they, along with their dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of counterparts are presenting the fates with an almost inevitable disaster.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is something very wrong with the way people have evolved. We are extremely adept at discerning patterns. These patterns, unfortunately, are of a size appropriate for hunter\/gatherer bands. For great societies, these perceived patterns simply delude. In a lifespan of fifteen or twenty thousand days, a one in 10 thousand event is a once-in-a-lifetime [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","post-preview"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.desertscope.com\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.desertscope.com\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.desertscope.com\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.desertscope.com\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.desertscope.com\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1157"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.desertscope.com\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1157\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1158,"href":"https:\/\/blog.desertscope.com\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1157\/revisions\/1158"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.desertscope.com\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.desertscope.com\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.desertscope.com\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}